What factors make a candidate more likely to win the Presidential election?  Is it campaign funding?  Likability?  Issues?  Or does a crafty candidate need to worry about all of the above?

In this lesson, students will learn about how pollsters and academics predict election outcomes and why so many of these models were wrong in 2016.  The class will play a game I designed.  The game uses uses real life polling and election data from August and September of 2020 to model what happened in the 2020 election, although the lessons from the game are applicable to any modern presidential election.

After a brief lesson on the basics of election polling and prediction, the majority of the lesson will be the game.  Students may choose to play on Team Democrat, Team Republican, work for a 3rd party candidate, or be an election observer.  The game will focus on the 10 swing states that had the most attention and impact in the 2020 election.  The candidates will use their resources to maximize their likability, their campaign outreach, and more closely align with the voters of the states they're fighting over.

Because I encourage students to express their opinions on the election and the candidates, we will begin class with a discussion about how to have productive and respectful conversations and debates about politics.  We'll establish early ground rules such as using respectful language, avoiding ad hominem attacks, and backing up claims with credible evidence.  As the instructor, I will not be sharing my opinions on the candidates (from 2020 or potential future candidates), other than discussing what factors influenced their relative chances at winning the election.  I keep these observations out of the realm of speculation; now that the election has passed, many of the indicators that are used to predict elections held up fairly well.

NOTE:  In order to make sure this class is fun, safe, and productive with everyone, parents and learners should familiarize themselves with the Outschool Community Standards before signing up for this class and follow them once class starts (https://support.outschool.com/en/articles/16039-community-standards).   I reserve the right to move students to the waiting room or remove them from class if they depart from the standards.